WS #7643

The dominant narrative remains ESCALATING geopolitical risk centered on Iran, with oil price swings and diplomatic maneuvers dominating the window. Key developments include: (1) Trump warns 'Iran knows what’s going to be happening soon,' escalating rhetoric; (2) Iran makes a new proposal for a deal to end the war, per Guardian, but a pessimistic source in Pakistan suggests no breakthrough; (3) US extends Russian oil sanctions waiver to ease supply squeeze amid Iran war, per Al-Monitor; (4) Japan's Finance Minister Katayama issues multiple statements on forex volatility, oil price impact, and G7 coordination on critical minerals, signaling intervention risk; (5) A jury finds OpenAI and Sam Altman not liable in Elon Musk's lawsuit, a positive for AI sentiment; (6) BlackRock's private credit fund draws DOJ scrutiny over valuation practices, a negative for financials; (7) Michael Saylor reveals a $2B Bitcoin purchase by Strategy, a bullish crypto signal; (8) Apple's special event on June 8 is restated, a positive catalyst for AAPL. The Iran situation remains fluid with no de-escalation, while the US waiver on Russian oil acts as a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis. The MAG7 narrative is mixed: Apple's event is positive, but Nvidia earnings loom with uncertainty on China chips. The prevailing macro theme is ESCALATING geopolitical risk driving oil higher and equities lower, partially offset by the Russian oil waiver and Apple's event.