WS #7866

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran nuclear crisis. Reuters reports that Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered near-weapons-grade uranium to remain in the country, reflecting a hardline consensus. This has already pushed Brent and WTI crude futures up 1% in early trading, with Polymarket showing heavy trading on oil price direction. The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted—Goldman Sachs reports oil flow is 95% below normal levels, and the IRGC Navy claims tighter control. This is a clear escalation of the Iran risk premium, with direct implications for energy stocks and broader indices. Separately, the US government is awarding $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing firms, including IBM, with the government taking equity stakes. This is corroborated by WSJ, Seeking Alpha, and multiple Bluesky posts. IBM shares are up 7% premarket on the news. Additionally, Nvidia reported another record quarter (revenue $81.6B, up 85% YoY), but shares fell 1.6% after-hours as investors priced in high expectations. Eli Lilly's retatrutide Phase 3 trial showed positive topline results, which is bullish for LLY. Advance Auto Parts and Advanced Drainage Systems both beat earnings estimates, but these are lower-significance single-stock events. The Iran nuclear standoff is the primary macro driver, with oil prices likely to remain elevated. The quantum computing grant is a sector-specific catalyst for IBM and related names. Nvidia's results are a MAG7 carve-out: despite the macro tech rally narrative, NVDA's after-hours dip suggests profit-taking, which could weigh on the broader tech sector today.