WS #7867

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran nuclear crisis and its impact on oil markets. IEA Chief Fatih Birol warned that oil markets could enter a 'red zone' in July-August as stocks deplete and summer demand firms, and expressed hope that the Strait of Hormuz will open fully and unconditionally. The UK is announcing measures to tackle the cost of living crisis partly due to the Iran war impact, including a 350-million-pound critical chemical resilience fund. Iran proposes charging tech giants for using undersea cables in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, the US government is awarding $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing firms, including IBM ($1B), GlobalFoundries ($375M), Rigetti ($100M), and D-Wave ($100M), with the government taking equity stakes. This is corroborated by WSJ, CNBC, Seeking Alpha, and multiple Bluesky posts. IBM shares are up 6.3% premarket. Walmart reported Q1 results: EPS $0.66 in-line, revenue $177.75B beat by $2.91B, but issued cautious Q2 guidance below estimates and affirmed FY guidance below consensus, citing high gas price environment. Walmart shares fell premarket. Nvidia received multiple price target raises (BofA to $350, Baird to $500, Benchmark to $335) after its blowout earnings. Eli Lilly's retatrutide Phase 3 trial showed 28.3% weight loss, bullish for LLY. Ukraine struck the Syzran oil refinery again, and Russia's oil and gas revenue is seen up 39% YoY in May due to the Iran war. The Iran nuclear standoff remains the primary macro driver, with oil prices likely to remain elevated. The quantum computing grant is a sector-specific catalyst for IBM and related names. Walmart's cautious guidance is a consumer spending headwind signal.