WS #8071

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation and escalation of the US-Iran peace deal narrative. Multiple high-credibility sources (Al Jazeera, The Guardian, AP, Times of Israel, and Trump's own Truth Social post) corroborate that a Memorandum of Understanding has been 'largely negotiated,' including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This represents a significant de-escalation from the prior war footing and has direct, multi-sector market implications. The deal is not yet finalized, with Iranian state media pushing back on Strait of Hormuz control, creating a counter-signal that tempers the bullish energy thesis. Polymarket activity shows heavy trading on Iran-related contracts, confirming market attention. The narrative is ESCALATING in terms of deal certainty, but with a counter-signal from Iran on control of the Strait.