WS #8072

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran peace deal narrative, with multiple high-credibility sources (Al Jazeera, AP, NBC, Trump's Truth Social, and multiple Bluesky accounts) corroborating that a Memorandum of Understanding has been 'largely negotiated.' Key terms include ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, US fleet withdrawal, end of naval blockade, and release of $6-25 billion in frozen Iranian funds. However, a significant counter-signal emerged: Iranian state media insists the Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iranian management despite Trump's claims, creating uncertainty about the final terms. Polymarket activity shows heavy trading on Iran-related contracts, confirming market attention. The narrative is ESCALATING in terms of deal certainty, but with a strong counter-signal from Iran on control of the Strait, which tempers the bullish energy thesis. Separately, Zelenskyy warned of a potential Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missile attack on Ukraine, and a college strike in Starobilsk resulted in casualties, but these are secondary to the Iran story.