WS #8120

The dominant signal in this window is the continued confirmation of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (Bloomberg, NPR, Bluesky, Polymarket) reporting tangible progress. A supertanker with Iraqi crude has exited the Persian Gulf, and Polymarket markets show active trading on the likelihood of the blockade being lifted by May 31. This development directly counters the prevailing oil supply crisis thesis, with potential to lower oil prices and reduce geopolitical risk premiums. However, the deal is not yet finalized; Trump has stated the blockade remains until signing, and Iran insists the Strait remains under its control. The narrative is ESCALATING as details emerge, with Polymarket contracts on 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31' and 'Will Donald Trump announce blockade lifted by May 31' seeing significant volume. Separately, SpaceX's S-1 filing for a June 12 Nasdaq listing at $1.75T valuation is a notable secondary signal, with Reddit discussions on potential ETF rebalancing impacts. The Mandalorian and Grogu opening as Disney's lowest-ever Star Wars film is a negative signal for DIS. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon and a Pakistan train bombing are noise relative to the Hormuz deal. The dominant narrative is the US-Iran deal, which is ESCALATING in significance as details emerge.