WS #8121

The dominant signal in this window is the continued confirmation of a US-Iran deal in principle to wind down the conflict, with multiple sources (NYT, BBC, GDELT, Bluesky) reporting tangible progress. A senior US official cited by NYT confirms a framework is in place, though sensitive issues remain unresolved. Polymarket contracts on 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31' and 'Will Donald Trump announce blockade lifted by May 31' show active trading. However, a Naked Capitalism report notes that even if a pact is concluded, Strait of Hormuz traffic is expected to reach only 40% of old levels by year-end, and Iran disputes Trump's claims. The narrative is ESCALATING as details emerge, with the deal potentially countering the prevailing oil supply crisis thesis. Separately, SpaceX's S-1 filing for a June 12 Nasdaq listing at $1.75T valuation continues to generate discussion on Reddit regarding ETF rebalancing impacts. The Mandalorian and Grogu opening as Disney's lowest-ever Star Wars film is a negative signal for DIS. Russian missile attacks on Kyiv using nuclear-capable missiles and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are ongoing but secondary to the Iran deal narrative.