WS #8335

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp unwind of the Iran/Hormuz risk premium, with WTI crude breaking below $90 to $87.77, a ~6% drop, as reports of a U.S.-Iran peace deal framework and Hormuz reopening within one month gain traction. This is corroborated by Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha (airline stocks rally on Hormuz hopes), and multiple Polymarket trades on Iran deal/ceasefire. The oil price collapse is a major counter-signal to the previous bullish energy thesis. Separately, Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000, citing AI-driven earnings growth, which supports the broader tech/AI rally narrative. However, NVDA is now in correction territory (down from $238 to $211), contradicting the macro tech rally thesis. On the geopolitical front, Zelenskyy sent an urgent letter to Trump warning of critical air-defense missile shortages and reporting Russian Oreshnik IRBM strikes, escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions. Uganda closed its border with Congo due to Ebola, adding to biosecurity risks. JPMorgan CEO Dimon flagged cyber as the biggest risk and mentioned potential stablecoin issuance. The narrative arc for Iran de-escalation is ESCALATING (deal hopes firming), for Ukraine-Russia it is ESCALATING (new missile strikes and air defense shortages), and for the AI/semiconductor rally it is STABLE but with NVDA-specific weakness.