WS #8336

The dominant signal in this window is the continued firming of a U.S.-Iran peace deal framework, with multiple sources (Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, Alpaca, Polymarket) corroborating that a draft MOU includes the U.S. lifting its naval blockade and the Strait of Hormuz returning to pre-war vessel traffic within one month. This has driven WTI crude below $90 (to ~$87.77, a ~6% drop) and triggered a rally in airline stocks (Seeking Alpha: 'Airline stocks rally on hopes the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-war levels'). The oil price collapse is a major counter-signal to the previous bullish energy thesis, with second-order effects: energy bearish (XOM, CVX), airlines bullish (DAL, UAL, AAL), refiners bearish (MPC, PSX), and consumer discretionary bullish. Separately, Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000, citing AI-driven earnings growth, which supports the broader tech/AI rally narrative. However, NVDA is now in correction territory (down from $238 to $211), contradicting the macro tech rally thesis—a MAG7 carve-out signal. On the geopolitical front, Zelenskyy sent an urgent letter to Trump warning of critical air-defense missile shortages and reporting Russian Oreshnik IRBM strikes, escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions. Uganda closed its border with Congo due to Ebola, adding to biosecurity risks. JPMorgan CEO Dimon flagged cyber as the biggest risk and mentioned potential stablecoin issuance. The narrative arc for Iran de-escalation is ESCALATING (deal hopes firming), for Ukraine-Russia it is ESCALATING (new missile strikes and air defense shortages), and for the AI/semiconductor rally it is STABLE but with NVDA-specific weakness.