WS #8342

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp oil price decline driven by Iranian state television reporting details of a draft US-Iran peace deal that would restore Strait of Hormuz shipping within a month. This is corroborated by FT, Alpaca, and multiple social media sources, marking a potential DE-ESCALATION of the Iran conflict narrative. Oil prices fell ~4% on the news, triggering a rally in airline stocks (UAL, DAL) and a selloff in energy names (XOM, CVX). Separately, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon signaled the bank could spend up to $20B on M&A, a high-significance positive for the financial sector. Abercrombie & Fitch reported a Q1 earnings beat but weak Q2 guidance due to Iran conflict headwinds, sending shares up 13% initially. The Kremlin stated Putin is open to negotiations with Europe, a modest geopolitical de-escalation signal. Dark pool activity showed large institutional orders in AAPL ($588M) and ARM ($145M), suggesting institutional accumulation. The USGS reported a M6.0 earthquake in the remote Indian-Antarctic Ridge, which is noise. Overall, the Iran peace deal framework is the most market-moving development, with oil-sensitive sectors most affected.