WS #8343

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Iran peace deal narrative, now corroborated by multiple sources including FT, Alpaca, and social media reports citing Iranian state television. The draft deal reportedly includes US military withdrawal and restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipping to pre-war levels, causing oil prices to fall and oil-related stocks to decline. This is a DE-ESCALATION of the Iran conflict narrative, with Polymarket contracts showing heavy betting on a ceasefire extension. Separately, SpaceX's Starship V3 booster failure and FAA investigation could delay the anticipated IPO, a negative for space-related sentiment. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's $20B M&A signal continues to be discussed, and Abercrombie & Fitch's earnings beat with weak guidance due to Iran headwinds is a mixed signal. The Kremlin's statement that Putin is open to negotiations with Europe is a modest geopolitical de-escalation signal. Dark pool activity shows large institutional orders in AAPL ($588M), suggesting accumulation. Overall, the Iran peace deal framework remains the most market-moving development, with oil-sensitive sectors most affected.