WS #8419

The dominant macro theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, which is now clearly ESCALATING. Fresh Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut suburbs and Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, marking the first strike on the capital in weeks and a significant escalation despite the ceasefire. Drone attacks on tankers in the region continue, with three vessels struck. This is corroborated by BBC, Al Jazeera, and multiple social media sources. The ECB's Philip Lane explicitly acknowledged that the Iran war is worsening the macroeconomic outlook, with high energy prices pushing down consumption and investment in Europe, and that the ECB will likely revise inflation forecasts upward in June. Exxon Mobil stated it could take four to six weeks for global oil supply chains to normalize after any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are elevated, with WTI above $90 and Brent near $96. Separately, Salesforce shares fell 2.6% after a disappointing fiscal Q2 revenue forecast, contradicting the broader tech narrative. Wix announced layoffs of ~20% of its workforce, citing AI and exchange rates. Alibaba's new AI model scored higher than OpenAI and Google on a coding leaderboard. A $1.3B dark pool sale of BlackRock's IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) was reported. The US State Dept committed $80M for Ebola response as the outbreak spreads. Israel froze all cooperation with the UN Secretary-General. Russia warned of a potential strike on Kyiv and accused Estonia of border violations. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk, with Polymarket contracts on traffic normalization still active.