WS #8420

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with fresh US strikes on Iran targets near the Strait of Hormuz and reports of a missile attack in Kuwait, driving oil prices up 2% (WTI ~$90.93, Brent ~$96.25). Israel struck Beirut for the first time since the ceasefire, and Israel froze all cooperation with the UN Secretary-General. The ECB's Philip Lane confirmed the Iran war is worsening the euro area outlook, with high energy prices pushing down consumption and investment, and the ECB likely to revise inflation forecasts upward in June. Exxon Mobil stated it could take 4-6 weeks for global oil supply chains to normalize after any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Microsoft announced it will release a new coding model next week in a comeback attempt, while Alibaba's Qwen3.7-Max scored higher than OpenAI and Google on a coding leaderboard. The Trump administration is in talks to take ownership stakes in US drone companies, boosting drone stocks (UMAC, AVAV). New home sales in the US declined 6.2% MoM in April, missing estimates. The Bank of Canada warned markets are more vulnerable to a sharp correction. A $1.3B dark pool sale of BlackRock's IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) was reported. The dominant macro theme is the escalating US-Iran conflict, which is clearly ESCALATING.