WS #8957

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the Iran-US conflict, directly contradicting the previous de-escalation narrative. An Iranian kamikaze drone struck an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, and Iranian drone strikes on Kuwait's international airport killed one and injured over 60. The US military also struck an oil tanker. These events sharply increase geopolitical risk and oil supply disruption fears. Separately, TSMC CEO comments on AI demand outstripping supply and plans to accelerate US production are bullish for semiconductors. The House War Powers Resolution to restrict Trump's Iran actions, passed 215-208, is a counter-signal but appears insufficient to offset the immediate escalation. SpaceX's $1.75tn valuation ahead of its IPO is a notable positive for space/tech. Meta's delay of its new AI model release is a minor negative for AI sentiment. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renewal from the previous window is now overshadowed by the Iran escalation. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for geopolitical risk, with the Iran conflict intensifying despite legislative checks.