WS #8958

The dominant signal in this window is a significant de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, directly countering the previous escalation narrative. Multiple sources (CNBC, Bloomberg, Polymarket) report that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a ceasefire, boosting hopes for a broader deal to end the US-Israeli war with Iran. Oil prices eased on this news, with Brent down 0.69% and WTI down 0.65%. The US House also approved a resolution to curb Trump's war powers, though it faces a likely veto. This ceasefire development is a major counter-signal to the previous escalation and should dampen the geopolitical risk premium in oil and safe-haven assets. Separately, TSMC CEO comments indicate Taiwan will retain a major advantage in AI for the foreseeable future, and that the target of locating 30% of 2nm capacity in the US is difficult to achieve due to construction worker shortages. This is bullish for TSMC and the broader semiconductor supply chain, reinforcing the AI narrative. SoftBank shares fell 10% amid a broader tech sell-off, but CEO Son called a correction the 'best investment opportunity'. Indonesia's rupiah hit a record low against the USD, breaching 18,000, driven by energy costs and trade balance pressure. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING for geopolitical risk, with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and US legislative check on war powers offsetting the prior escalation.