WS #8985

The dominant narrative remains the oil supply crisis, which is ESCALATING. The IMF has issued stark warnings: the Iran war has curtailed 14 million barrels of oil per day, and global oil reserves are expected to hit a five-year low of 7.5 billion barrels in July. Oil prices are currently about 3% above the IMF's baseline forecast, implying downside risk to global growth. Russia's Deputy PM Novak admitted oil output is falling due to Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, corroborated by multiple sources. Meanwhile, a new US-mediated Lebanon ceasefire has been rejected by Hezbollah, prolonging regional instability. On the diplomatic front, Putin's envoy Dmitriev confirmed Russia-US negotiations are not on pause, and the US has extended sanctions waivers for Russian oil, signaling a potential counter-signal to the supply crisis. In corporate news, Palantir expanded its Google Cloud AI partnership, lifting shares. Quantinuum's IPO opened at $73, above its $60 price. Ramp raised $750M at a $44B valuation. John Bolton reached a plea deal over classified documents, and Trump plans to nominate Todd Blanche as Attorney General. The Hezbollah ceasefire rejection and IMF oil warnings are the highest-significance items, with the IMF data serving as a counter-signal to any bullish oil thesis by highlighting demand destruction risk.