WS #8986

The dominant oil supply crisis narrative is DE-ESCALATING, driven by a major counter-signal: Bloomberg reports Treasuries rose as oil signaled optimism on an Iran peace accord, and Putin's envoy Dmitriev confirmed US sanctions waivers for Russian oil were extended for energy market stability. This directly counters the prior bearish oil thesis. However, the Ukraine-Russia conflict is ESCALATING: Ukrainian drones struck a St. Petersburg oil terminal and a Russian patrol ship, confirmed by multiple sources (AP, Kyiv Independent, OilPrice.com), and Russia's Lavrov escalated rhetoric calling it 'Trump's war'. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire remains fragile: a new US-mediated truce was announced but Hezbollah rejected it, while Israel launched airstrikes across south Lebanon. In corporate news, Broadcom (AVGO) dropped 13-15% post-earnings despite AI revenue surging 143% to $10.8B, as Wall Street wanted more acceleration. Palantir (PLTR) expanded its Google Cloud AI partnership, lifting shares. Magnite (MGNI) shares rose on an expanded partnership with JioHotstar. Hims & Hers (HIMS) jumped on a new chief medical officer appointment. ServiceNow (NOW) climbed on the 'AI won't kill software' narrative. Ramp raised $750M at a $44B valuation. The Supreme Court sided with the FCC in a case against AT&T and Verizon. Trump plans to nominate Todd Blanche as Attorney General. John Bolton reached a plea deal over classified documents. The Iran nuclear standoff continues: IAEA says Iran still won't verify enriched uranium, while the House voted to curb Iran war powers. Coal stocks climbed as Trump announced $700M to the sector. The MAG7 narrative is mixed: NVDA saw bullish options activity, while AVGO sold off sharply. The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic on geopolitical de-escalation signals, but the Ukraine conflict escalation and fragile Lebanon truce keep risk premiums elevated.