WS #9074

The dominant risk-off narrative from the previous window continues to escalate, driven by a blowout US jobs report that has cemented Fed rate hike expectations. Bloomberg and multiple sources confirm stocks and bonds fell sharply after the data, with the Nasdaq down over 2% and Bitcoin breaking below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024. The crypto selloff is intensifying: CoinDesk reports Bitcoin lost $60,000, down nearly 20% this week, as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) turned seller and ETF outflows accelerated. Memecoins like dogecoin and shiba inu are diving 9%. The Broadcom (AVGO) selloff continues, with the stock down $100 in two days after unimpressive guidance, triggering broad valuation concerns across AI-related names. On the geopolitical front, the Iran situation remains acute: Hormuz traffic is near zero as peace talks stall, Iran inflation hit its highest level since WWII, and the WFP warns the war is pushing millions toward hunger. Putin made statements about balancing oil markets via OPEC+, but oil prices are still elevated. A key counter-signal emerged: S&P rejected fast entry for SpaceX, delaying $14B in passive inflows, which could dampen some of the SpaceX IPO euphoria. Additionally, the XOVR ETF implemented a shareholder protection plan ahead of the SpaceX IPO. The NVDA CEO was summoned over China chip sales, adding regulatory risk to the AI trade. Reid Hoffman is leaving Microsoft's board, a minor negative for MSFT sentiment. Overall, the narrative is risk-off with rate hike fears, crypto contagion, and geopolitical uncertainty, partially offset by potential SPR refill and long-term AI investment flows.