WS #9833

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran peace deal, which is now confirmed and detailed. Multiple sources (BBC, Axios, Al Jazeera, GDELT, Seeking Alpha) corroborate the agreement: the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after mine clearance, the US naval blockade is lifted, and a 60-day ceasefire extension allows for nuclear negotiations. This is a high-significance, bullish development for global risk assets, particularly energy-sensitive sectors. Oil prices are already falling ~5% on the news, which acts as a counter-signal to the previous war-driven inflation thesis. Asian tech stocks (SoftBank +12%) and Indian indices (Sensex +1,200 points) are rallying. However, the deal leaves nuclear issues unresolved, and the mine clearance timeline introduces near-term uncertainty. Separately, the Anthropic AI model ban for non-US citizens is generating geopolitical noise, with EU pushback, but its immediate market impact is limited to AI-related tickers. The Ukraine drone attack report is a minor escalation but does not change the prevailing stable narrative. Overall, the US-Iran deal is the clear signal, de-escalating the dominant geopolitical risk and driving a broad risk-on move.