WS #9834

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, which is now detailed and corroborated by multiple high-credibility sources (BBC, Bloomberg, NYT, FT, Seeking Alpha, GDELT, and direct statements from Trump). The agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz on June 19, lifting the US naval blockade, and a 60-day ceasefire for nuclear negotiations. This is a high-significance, bullish development for global risk assets, particularly energy-sensitive sectors. Oil prices are already plunging ~5% toward $83, Asian equities are surging (Nikkei near record close, SoftBank +12%), and US futures are rallying. The deal acts as a counter-signal to the previous war-driven inflation thesis. However, the deal is interim, with nuclear issues unresolved and Trump warning he could restart strikes if talks fail. Separately, Russia launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine (70 missiles, 611 drones), killing at least 9 in Kyiv and Kharkiv and damaging a historic monastery, but this is a minor escalation within the ongoing conflict and does not change the prevailing stable narrative. The Anthropic AI model ban for non-US citizens is generating geopolitical noise but limited immediate market impact. Overall, the US-Iran deal is the clear signal, de-escalating the dominant geopolitical risk and driving a broad risk-on move. Narrative arc: ESCALATING (deal details and market reaction intensifying).