WS #9850

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the US-Iran peace deal, which has triggered a sharp oil sell-off (WTI -5.23%, Brent -4.72%) and a broad risk-on rally. The Nasdaq-100 jumped 2.5%, airline stocks surged (AAL, DAL at all-time high), and energy stocks plunged (XOM -5.1%). The deal includes reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts caution it may take a month for supply to return to >50%, tilting risks to the upside. Israel's defense minister stated the country will not withdraw from seized territory, and EU ministers agreed Lebanon must be covered by the deal, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction. Separately, Salesforce announced a $3.6B acquisition of Fin (formerly Intercom) to boost its Agentforce platform, and Fox is acquiring Roku for $22B. SpaceX shares continued to rise on its second trading day, with Musk predicting $1T in yearly revenue. The UK announced a social media ban for under-16s, but this is unlikely to move US markets. The prevailing narrative is a risk-on rotation out of energy into tech and airlines, with the Iran deal as the catalyst. The oil sell-off is partially countered by the slow return of supply, which could limit further downside in crude.