WS #9851

The dominant market narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal, which continues to drive a risk-on rotation out of energy into tech and airlines. The Dow is up over 600 points, the Nasdaq-100 jumped 2.5%, and airline stocks like AAL and DAL are surging to all-time highs. Oil prices are plunging (WTI -5.23%, Brent -4.72%), but a key counter-signal has emerged: shipping and maritime security firms estimate clearing sea mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take 40-50 days, and analysts warn it may take a month for supply to return to more than 50%. This dampens the bearish oil thesis and suggests the sell-off may be overdone in the near term. Additionally, EU ministers agreed that Lebanon must be covered by the ceasefire deal, and Israel's defense minister stated the country will not withdraw from seized territory, indicating ongoing geopolitical friction that could limit the risk-on rally. Separately, SpaceX's IPO raised a total of $85.7 billion as underwriters exercised the greenshoe option, and the stock continues to rise. Nuvei Corp. agreed to buy Payoneer Global Inc. for roughly $2.75 billion. The UK announced a social media ban for under-16s, but this is unlikely to move US markets. The prevailing narrative is a risk-on rotation out of energy into tech and airlines, with the Iran deal as the catalyst, but the slow return of oil supply and lingering geopolitical tensions provide a partial counter.