WS #9953

The dominant theme in this window is the US-Iran deal, which is ESCALATING with concrete developments. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Reuters, Guardian, and various social media accounts) report that the US and Iran have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade. A US sanctions waiver allows Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel sales under the peace agreement, covering banking, transportation, and insurance services. This is a major counter-signal to previous Strait of Hormuz closure fears and is driving oil prices sharply lower (WTI down ~5.8% to ~$76, Brent below $80 for the first time since the Iran war began). However, the deal faces political headwinds: Senate Republicans, including Majority Leader John Thune, demand more details and have not received the text or a briefing, and Trump has called for impeachment of Sen. Jack Reed for calling the deal a 'bad mistake'. Iran's top envoy also linked the deal to Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, adding complexity. Separately, Saudi Arabia reiterated the importance of restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, aligning with the deal's goals. On the corporate side, Snap launched its $2,195 Specs AR glasses (preorder today, ship fall), a high-risk bet that could move SNAP. GM and Lockheed Martin announced a defense partnership facilitated by the DoD, bullish for GM and LMT. Rivian confirmed layoffs of less than 2% of workforce (less severe than earlier reports). The Pentagon committed a $500M loan to Phoenix Tailings for rare earths. Coinbase is launching tokenized US stocks. The FOMC is expected to hold rates and remove easing bias as Kevin Warsh takes over. Citi's chief US economist noted that falling oil prices shift inflation from upside risk to deflationary pressure, potentially dovish for the Fed.