WS #9954

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran deal, which is STABLE but with new complexities. Iran's top envoy has linked the peace deal to Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, adding a condition that could delay finalization. Trump criticized Israeli attacks on Lebanon at the G7, calling them 'vicious'. Barclays maintains a $100 Brent forecast despite oil dropping below $80, arguing supply normalization will take weeks. Citi sees flows normalizing by mid-to-late July and cuts Brent forecasts to $75 Q3, $70 Q4. Saudi Arabia reiterated the importance of restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, a Russian frigate fired warning shots at a British-flagged yacht near the Isle of Wight, a minor naval incident that is unlikely to move markets but adds geopolitical noise. On the corporate side, SpaceX options debuted with extreme volatility, and the company overtook Amazon as the world's fifth-largest. Mobileye announced robotaxi plans for 2027. GM and Lockheed Martin announced a defense partnership. Rivian confirmed layoffs of less than 2% of workforce. Qualcomm launched new XR chips. The Pentagon committed a $500M loan to Phoenix Tailings for rare earths. Citi's chief US economist noted falling oil prices shift inflation from upside risk to deflationary pressure, potentially dovish for the Fed. The US-Iran deal narrative is stable but the Lebanon linkage introduces a new risk factor that could delay the deal and keep oil prices elevated relative to the current spot price.